Closing: U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, the S&P 500 hit a two-month low
2022-09-23: [Article Link] In the early morning hours of Beijing’s 23rd day, the US stock fell on Thursday, reaching a low of the standard 500 index and the fingerline since mid-July. The market is still assessing the Fed’s signal of radical austerity. The agency raised 75 basis points on Wednesday and clearly expressed its willingness to tolerate the recession as a necessary cost to contain inflation, with officials suggesting that an additional 125 basis points would be raised by the end of the year. The index fell by 107.10 points to 0.35 per cent to 30076.68 points; the index fell by 153.39 points to 1.37 per cent to 11066.81 points; and the index index 500 dropped by 31.94 points to 0.84 per cent to 3757.99 points.
By Thursday, the dotted index had fallen to its lowest level since late June, and the pamphlet index of 500 and the dotted index had been at a new low since mid-July.
Thursdays saw a rise in the rate of return on US debt, which rose to 3.644 per cent over a 10-year period, a further high since 2011.
The market is still assessing the impact of the Federal Reserve's 75 basis points of interest increase for the third consecutive time on Wednesday, and is concerned that its radical policy stance on interest hikes will plunge the United States economy into recession.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve sent the clearest signal to date that it was willing to tolerate the recession and that, as a necessary cost to regain control of inflation, officials had hinted that an additional 125 basis points would be raised by the end of the year.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a third consecutive increase of 75 basis points, raising the federal fund base rate to between 3% and 3.25%, the highest level since the beginning of 2008. The Fed’s rate increase is consistent with market expectations.
Monetary policy policymakers declared that they would continue to raise interest rates in 2023, reaching a benchmark rate of 4.6 per cent, after which it would be possible to stop measures to curb inflation.
The Federal Reserve Conference statement indicated that the Agency would continue to take positive action to counter price increases for the remainder of the year.
The Federal Reserve's latest interest-added path “point map” also shows that several officials expect the benchmark rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by the end of the year, 100 basis points higher than the previous dot map forecast.
Marketers fear that the Fed's strategy of slowing economic growth to contain inflation may trigger a recession.
The Federal Reserve itself anticipates that its significant interest-raising measures will lead to a slowdown in economic growth.
“No one knows whether this process could lead to an economic recession or, if so, how serious it would be”, said Fed Chairman Powell, after an announcement of interest hikes, “the chances of soft landings may be reduced to the extent that policies need to be more restrictive or limited for longer periods of time”.
The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections shows that the unemployment rate in the United States will rise from the current 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent by 2023. In addition, the Federal Reserve projected a 0.2 per cent increase in GDP in the United States in 2022, well below the 1.7 per cent increase expected in June; GDP growth projections for 2023 decreased to 1.2 per cent and projections for 2024 to 1.7 per cent, reflecting a sustained increase in the impact of tightening monetary policy. “The Fed is planning a hard landing — soft landing is almost impossible. Powell’s admission that economic growth will be below trend levels for some time should be interpreted as a central bank’s economic downturn. From now on, the situation will become more critical. On Wednesday, Jeff Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, known as the “New Debt King”, said that the Fed should slow the rate increase, given that the United States economy was already on the verge of recession.
“The Fed is long overdue. Monetary policy has long and variable lags. For some time now, the Fed has implemented austerity, the effects of which will accumulate into a recession. I think the Fed should indeed slow down the rate hike.”
Referring to the Federal Reserve's projected rate increase of 4.4 per cent by the end of the year, González said, "I don't think they can do it because the economy is showing signs of weakness."
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reports that, as of the week of 17 September, the first U.S. application for unemployment benefit was 213,000, expected to be 218,000, with a previous value of 213,000. The average of four weeks for the first application for unemployment benefit was 216750 and a previous value of 224,000.
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the deficit in the second quarter was equivalent to 4.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in United States dollars, down from 4.6 per cent in the first quarter.
Specific data show that the United States current account deficit fell by $31.5 billion in the second quarter of 2022, by 11.1 per cent, to $251.1 billion in total.
The revised current account deficit for the first quarter was $282.5 billion. The deficit for the second quarter was equivalent to 4.0 per cent of total GDP in United States dollars, down from 4.6 per cent in the first quarter, and the decline in the second quarter was largely a reflection of the decline in the commodity deficit.
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On other markets, the price of gold futures delivered by the New York Commodity Exchange in December increased by $5.40, or 0.3 per cent, to $1681.10 per ounce.
The West Texas Middle crude oil (WTI) futures, delivered in November, rose by 55 cents, or 0.7 per cent, to $83.49 per barrel.