In September, PPI rose 1.2 percent month-on-month and continued to expand, and coal processing industry prices rose 18.9 percent

2021-10-14: [Article Link]. Among them, coal processing industry prices rose 18.9%, coal mining and washing industry prices rose 12.1%, the total impact of PPI rose by about 0.50 percentage points. Part of the high energy-consuming industries production is limited, prices rose more, including non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 2.9%, cement and other non-metallic mineral products industry prices rose 2.9%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry prices rose 2.0%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 1.8%, the total impact of PPI rose by about 0.57 percentage points. In addition, imported natural gas prices and other factors to promote domestic gas production and supply prices rose 2.5%, international iron ore prices and other factors led to domestic ferrous metal mining and dressing industry prices fell 8.7%. Ping An Securities believes that in the context of the epidemic, the loose monetary policy of various countries provides ample liquidity, providing a monetary basis for the rise in commodity prices, superimposed: 1) the Covid vaccination rate is expanding and the global economy is recovering; 2) the repeated epidemic has impacted the supply chain, affecting production and transportation; 3) the recovery of domestic policy pressure, in the context of carbon neutrality, it is proposed to implement environmental protection requirements to promote steel, coal and other high-energy-consuming industries to "reduce production capacity", and PPI rose rapidly. In September, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol fell by 2.8% year-on-year, affecting the CPI (consumer price index) fell by about 0.79 percentage points. In food, the price of livestock and meat fell by 28.5%, affecting the decline of about 1.26 percentage points, of which the price of pork fell 46.9%, the impact of CPI decreased by about 1.12 percentage points; Fresh vegetable prices fell by 2.5%, the impact of CPI decreased by about 0.05 percentage points; Fresh fruit prices fell 0.8%, the impact of CPI decreased by about 0.01 percentage points; Egg prices rose 12.6%, affecting CPI rose about 0.08 percentage points; Aquatic products prices rose 9.8%, the impact of CPI rose by about 0.18 percentage points; Grain prices rose 0.7%, affecting CPI rose about 0.01 percentage points. The prices of the other seven categories rose six year-on-year. Among them, the prices of transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, and housing rose by 5.8%, 3.2% and 1.3% respectively, while the prices of clothing, daily necessities and services, and health care increased by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively; prices of other supplies and services fell by 2.8%. In September, food, tobacco and alcohol prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, affecting CPI down about 0.12 percentage points. In food, the price of aquatic products fell by 2.5%, affecting CPI decreased by about 0.05 percentage points; The price of livestock and meat fell by 2.3%, affecting the decline of about 0.07 percentage points, of which the price of pork fell by 5.1%, the impact of CPI decreased by about 0.07 percentage points; Fresh vegetable prices rose 1.0%, the impact of CPI up about 0.02 percentage points. The other seven categories of prices rose by one flat and two down. Among them, the prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment rose by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, and the prices of other supplies and services and housing rose by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively; The prices of health care remained flat; Transportation and communications, the prices of daily necessities and services fell by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production rose 14.2%, affecting the overall level of ex-factory prices of industrial producers rose by about 10.60 percentage points. Among them, the price of the extractive industry rose 49.4%, the raw material industry price rose 20.4%, and the processing industry price rose 8.9%. The price of means of living rose 0.4%, affecting the overall level of ex-factory prices of industrial producers rose by about 0.11 percentage points. Among them, food prices rose 0.7%, clothing and general daily necessities prices rose 0.4%, consumer durables prices rose 0.2%. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose by 0.1% to flat. Among them, food prices from the previous month rose 0.8% to a decline of 0.7%, affecting the CPI decline of about 0.12 percentage points. Among the food, pork and aquatic products were in sufficient supply, and prices fell by 5.1% and 2.5% respectively, which were larger than last month. Non-food prices from the previous month's decline 0.1% to rise 0.2%, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.16 percentage points. In non-food, industrial consumer prices rose 0.3% from a 0.2% decline last month. Among them, affected by the rise in raw material prices and other factors, cement, liquefied petroleum gas and car prices have risen, the increase between 0.6%-7.6%; New winter clothing on the market, clothing prices rose 0.8%. Service prices rose 0.1% from flat last month. Among them, the beginning of the new semester some school fees, education services prices rose 1.7%; Summer overlay scattered epidemic impact, air tickets, travel agency charges and hotel accommodation prices fell by 9.9%, 3.3% and 2.2%. From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose 0.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices fell 5.2%, the rate of decline of 1.1 percentage points over the previous month, the impact of CPI decline of about 0.98 percentage points. In food, pork prices fell 46.9%, with an increase of 2.0 percentage points; Freshwater fish, eggs and edible vegetable oil prices rose 21.0%, 14.2% and 9.2%, respectively. Non-food prices rose 2.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, the impact of CPI rose about 1.65 percentage points. In non-food, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose 2.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, including gasoline and diesel prices rose 23.4% and 25.7%, respectively, the increase has expanded; Service prices rose 1.4%, the increase fell by 0.1 percentage points, of which air tickets, travel agency fees and hotel accommodation prices rose 15.7%, 8.7% and 1.2%, respectively, the increase has fallen. It is estimated that in the 0.7% of the year-on-year increase in CPI in September, the impact of price changes last year was about 0, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The impact of new price increases was about 0.7 percentage points, it expanded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, the same increase as last month. On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose 1.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the prices of means of production rose 1.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points; The prices of means of living were flat. Affected by strong demand superimposed on the continued tight supply, coal processing industry prices rose 18.9%, coal mining and washing industry prices rose 12.1%, the total impact of PPI rose by about 0.50 percentage points. Part of the high energy-consuming industries production is limited, prices rose more, including non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 2.9%, cement and other non-metallic mineral products industry prices rose 2.9%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry prices rose 2.0%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 1.8%, the total impact of PPI rose by about 0.57 percentage points. In addition, imported natural gas prices and other factors to promote domestic gas production and supply prices rose 2.5%, international iron ore prices and other factors led to domestic ferrous metal mining and dressing industry prices fell 8.7%. On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose 10.7%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 14.2%, with an increase of 1.5 percentage points; The price of means of living rose 0.4%, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points. Among the 40 industrial categories surveyed, 36 prices rose, an increase of 4 over the previous month. The price increase of major industries has expanded, of which the price of coal mining and washing industry has increased by 74.9%, an increase of 17.8 percentage points over the previous month; The price of oil and natural gas mining industry has increased by 43.6%, expanding by 2.3 percentage points, the prices of coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 40.5% and 5.2 percentage points; The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries increased by 34.9% and 0.8 percentage points; The prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 25.5%, expand 1.5 percentage points; Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 24.6%, expanding 2.8 percentage points. The above 6 industry total affect PPI rose by about 8.42 percentage points, the total increase of the total country. According to estimates, in the September 10.7% of the year-on-year increase in PPI, last year the impact of price changes last year was about 1.8 percentage points, the same as the previous month; The impact of new price increases of about 8.9 percentage points, it expanded by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

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