The new US moves to win over ASEAN, the Philippine president changes, how will the situation in the South China Sea change?


2022-05-14: [Article Link Core summary: The Philippine President-elect, Mr. Marcos Jr., or the continuation of the “strategic acquiescence” of the current President, Mr. Duarte, has become more pragmatic on the South China Sea issue and on China's policy towards China, arguing that the resolution of disputes with China over the South China Sea by military means is not a priority for the Philippines, and that this is a problem between China and the Philippines and should not involve the United States. During the six years of Dutelt's administration, two features characterized the development of good relations between China and the Philippines: first, the high-level interaction between China and the Philippines and the establishment of a well-functioning bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea. 3. The three main challenges that will be faced when Little Marcos takes office are: first, to bridge the political rift in the country; secondly, to address the issue of human life and lead the post-influence recovery in the Philippines; and finally, to address relations with the major Powers. 4. The political burden borne by Little Marcos, the political ecology of his country and the two main sets of ways in which the United States is controlling President Fédéric’s practices are likely to constrain his approach to governance. Compared to the power of Durtart, Little Marcos may be recovering. This recovery, in other words, creates a delicate balance between Central America and the United States. The United States-ASEAN Special Summit, in the context of the new version of the Indian-Pacific Strategy proposed by the Biden Government, could devote more resources and energy to bringing together its allies and partners to engage in geopolitical border demarcation confrontations. 6. The Russian-Ukraine conflict and epidemic overlap, rising energy, food prices and changes in the industrial chain have had a significant impact on South-East Asian countries. After the conflict in Russia-Ukraine, the US sought to reshape the strategic environment around China, focusing on the ASEAN countries. Currently, these countries are more cautious and have a clear resistance to the selection of side teams. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., Philippine presidential candidate (“Small Marcos”) Welcome to the "Hong Kong" issue. The Philippines’ general elections have ended, and little Marcos has won the election to become a new president. How he will deal with relations between the Philippines and China, as well as with the United States, will be the focus of much global attention when he takes office. It is widely accepted that he is among the most friendly candidates in China, a “second-generation president” who has taken a position on the question of the South China Sea. When he takes office, how will Sino-Fie's relationship develop? The Philippine President-elect is more “closer”: campaign rhetoric does not amount to governing policy. Hi, Dr. Ding! Do you think there will be any change in his policy towards Watt and Dutt's administration after Little Marcos takes office? Dingdu: From these combined statements during the campaign period, at least in the Philippine and Western media, it is widely recognized that among the candidates, Little Marcos is a relative friend of China. Some media have also pointed out that he may continue the “strategic acquiescence” of Durt, which is to make the Philippines more pragmatic in South China Sea policy and policy towards China, closer to Beijing's position, or a pro-City posture. From the current situation in the Philippine elections, it appears that among these candidates, Little Marcos is less likely to be interviewed by the media. From his attitudes and views on China’s relations with China, and on the South China Sea, we can also look at one or two of them. Little Marcos. In fact, there is a general consensus that little Marcos is friendly to China, and what about his attitude with regard to the South China Sea? Ding Dho: I think that one of the inescapable issues in the relationship between China and the Philippines, or one that often touches on the sensitive nerves of both countries, is the South China Sea problem, which is also a concern. At the beginning of this year, Little Marcos made some public statements: he suggested avoiding an escalation of conflict with China, while arguing that bilateral dialogue with Beijing should be pursued. For example, in January of this year, he said in a talk show that the South China Sea arbitration decision was “ineffectual,” because China did not accept the so-called award. At the same time, he said that he would not seek US help against China, even though he was an ally in a treaty. In February, he also said that a military solution to the dispute with China over the South China Sea was not a priority for the Philippines, and that it was a problem between China and the Philippines, and that if Americans intervened, it would certainly lead to a failure of that approach. In his relations with China, the media, both inside and outside the country, generally predicts that he will continue, to some extent, the Dutelt’s pragmatic policy toward China. From some comments during his election campaign, he believes that the way the Dutelt government engages with China is the best option for the Philippines. The current President of the Philippines, Dutelt. Of course, there is an inescapable problem: China is the country’s most important trading partner, and bilateral relations affect the country’s economic development. Especially now, when the epidemic is difficult to control, and when the country’s economic recovery is faced with an important and daunting task, trade and economic relations between China and the Philippines are also very important for the Philippines. In the area of security, he has the judgement that military confrontation with China is not the best option for the Philippines. At the same time, it is a non-confrontational state with China, which is a cornerstone of Philippine relations with China. China needs to remain cautious and optimistic. Hong Kong letter from Phoenix Network: Is there any concern that little Marcos has been elected, and that the development of the relationship between China and the Philippines is entirely optimistic? Dingdu: There are some media in the country, cheering and cheering are better outcomes. Of course, we may be more cautiously optimistic. On May 7th, 2022 local time, in Manila, Philippines, young Marcos participated in the campaign rally, whose supporters cheered. During these two days, when I met with a number of American scholars, they also said that within the United States Government there was hope for the election of Little Marcos and that it was a pleasure to see him elected. From this point of view, it may be about relations with China, the South China Sea. Little Marcos may be recovering as compared to the Dutt period. Such recycling may not be on either the US or China’s red line. China can now enjoy it, or understand it. Of course, there may still be frictions at the Middle Fifi Sea. First, it will not go beyond the capacity of the consultative mechanism; second, it will also be relatively calm and rational to deal with these issues, without allowing risk or adverse effects to spill over. Durert's been in power for six years. What's the progress on the Chinese-Fi relationship in the six years of Dutelt's administration? Ding Dho: A month ago, Chinese leaders and Dutelt just spoke, and shortly before that, the State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Foreign Minister of the Philippines Lochin also met. Indeed, there is a clearer overview of the development of bilateral relations over the past six years, as well as the proper treatment of the South China Sea, and it is also a vision for the future. On 3 April 2022, the State Councillor and Minister for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi held a meeting with the Foreign Minister of the Philippines, Lochin, who visited China in Anhui Town: China Ministry of Foreign Affairs website Over the past six years, we have seen a very clear dynamic or feature of the high-level interaction between China and the Philippines. Before the outbreak, the leaders of the two countries met frequently; after the outbreak, the calls were relatively frequent. This also reflects the fact that, following the issuance of the South China Sea Arbitration Award in 2016, and after the inauguration of Durt, he adopted a rational and pragmatic South China Sea policy and a policy towards China, which resulted in a marked increase in mutual political trust between the two sides as a result of the joint efforts of the two sides. Another specific feature is the establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea, which is functioning very well. At the same time, China and the Philippines have achieved a number of successes and results in maritime cooperation, particularly functional cooperation in low-sensitive maritime areas, including maritime law enforcement cooperation, cooperation in scientific research at sea, cooperation in fisheries, and cooperation in environmental protection. In particular, cooperation in marine fisheries has brought tangible benefits to Filipino fishermen and has effectively improved their livelihoods, reflecting a significant development in bilateral relations based on a rational approach to the South China Sea between the two countries. In a conversation with President Duarte, China’s leader said that China’s policy toward the Philippines was consistent and stable. I think that such a pronouncement is an audience that, in addition to the Dutelt government, in fact includes the new government of the Philippines. In addition to the South China Sea problem, Little Marcos faces three major challenges. Phoenix Network's Hong Kong letter: Durt's support in the Philippines is still very high. So how can he be better able to gain domestic support in the future, in the case of a “second-generation president” of Little Marcos, or in the case of big-country relations? Dingdu: I understand the problem: Little Marcos has a very high support rate, which reflects a characteristic of the current presidential election in the Philippines, which is not just a representative of the elite. This is a new development in recent years’ elections in the Philippines, in which the President is not necessarily elected if he merely represents the elite. It also reflects the fact that the elite must be added to the public at large, including during the Dutelt campaign. His social power base throughout the presidency, or the legitimacy of power, is expanding. In the past, America’s grip on US-FP relations was more based on a political power structure such as a weak Philippine president. The strong Philippine president, who has a relatively expanded and consolidated public opinion base, has greater autonomy and independence in diplomatic decision-making. On the positive side, this expansion of presidential legitimacy provides much strategic space for the Philippines to pursue a more pragmatic and rational policy towards China; on the negative side, however, in order to continue to hold the Philippines, or to keep the Philippines from diverging from its overall strategy, he may put more pressure and resources into exerting pressure on coercion. Of course, we would also like to see a difference between Little Marcos and Durt, and this time a lot of media attention, that is to say, he had a certain political burden in the past. In particular, his father's assessment of him during his term of office, both within the Philippines and in some extraterritorial Powers, may have held him hostage to the idea of governance. On May 10, 2022 local time, Little Marcos commemorated his father at the hero's cemetery in the city of Taj, a suburb of Manila, Philippines. At the same time, we would like to see Sarah (Doutert's daughter) running for the presidency at the beginning of this election in the Philippines, which culminated in a mix of President Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Sarah as a result of a coordinated set of interests. As I personally see it, Sarah’s vice-presidentship may also hold him hostage. On the positive side, it may be more likely that this relatively pragmatic and independent foreign policy, relations with China, will continue; on the negative side, it may be that Little Marcos will not be as strong as Durrant’s presidency, and there will be some restraint. • Sara Dutelt, Vice-President-elect of the Philippines (left) and his father Rodrigo Dutelt What are the challenges that young Marcos will face when he takes office? Ding Dho: So I look at this question, which means that the South China Sea problem or controversy is only one aspect, a small part, and not all, of Sino-Phi relations. The content and expansiveness of Sino-Physic relations are so numerous that they include areas of cooperation in trade, politics, humanities, etc. In view of the international situation as a whole and the internal situation in the Philippine Government, the small Marcos may also face a number of challenges, mainly from a domestic perspective. First, we have seen elections in recent years in countries neighbouring China, such as the Philippines and, more recently, South Korea, even the United States, where the first task facing their elected members after the general elections is to bridge this rift in domestic politics. This is a feature of the changes in the political environment in China’s neighbouring countries in recent years. Smaller Marcos is no exception, and he is faced with the task of bridging the political divide. At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, the impact of the epidemic on the Philippines is still very high, as is the pressure on the population to recover from the epidemic. In particular, his concern for the livelihood of the people during the elections, as reflected by the people's demands of vital interest to the people, was a daunting challenge. The third challenge is to deal with relations between major Powers or diplomatic relations. In this trade-off, he may be more focused on his internal affairs, which cannot be separated from the healthy development of Sino-Fi relations. China’s assistance in all kinds of immunization, including vaccines, and economic transactions bring real benefits to the people of the Philippines. At this level, his policy toward China will be pragmatic and rational. At the same time, there must be inertia in the development of the Sino-fi relationship that has accumulated over the six-year Dutt period. At least in the case of China and the Philippines, one of the most beneficial ways for the two peoples is to maximize the inertia. I believe that he has had enough political wisdom and means to deal with these difficult issues from the years of his administration, including his life in the past. On 28 February 2021 local time, in Manila, Philippines, the Chinese Air Force brought the first Chinese-produced Covid-19 vaccine to Villarmo Air Force Base Are the countries of the region more conscious, and the United States can't stir the South China Sea any longer? On May 12th, 13th, the US-ASEAN Special Summit was held in Washington, D.C., and what are the implications for the situation in the South China Sea? Ding Dho: From some of our current observations of the main political forces in the Philippines, these major politicians have some common understanding of the South China Sea issues, particularly the South China Sea Arbitration case. One of the more obvious examples of this commonality is the perception that the Philippines is the winner of the South China Sea arbitration case, and that the “arbitral award” is binding and effective. The specific difference is merely how to apply the award, how to deal specifically with some of the differences in relations with China and the South China Sea; for example, Dutelt, who is (opt) to set aside the “judgement”. Although he had also publicly claimed before the United Nations General Assembly that the “award” was part of international law, there was a clear consensus that the Philippines and China did not discuss issues on the basis of “arbitral awards”, a strategy of Durt. After Marcos came to power, I think, at least in this respect, he prefers a more pragmatic and rational approach to this “arbitral award.” Of course, one thing that can be foreseen is that, at least in the disputed waters or on the atolls concerned, there may be some friction between China and the Philippines, which requires both sides to calmly and rationally manage the crisis and avoid its spillover. But now, in the context of such broad frameworks as the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the introduction by the United States of a new version of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, it is not just China, I think, that the countries of the region are aware of it. In view of the exacerbation of the situation in the South China Sea over the past few years, including in the aftermath of the “arbitration” case, there is still a clear understanding in the region of the proximate strategy of the United States to put these small and medium-sized countries in the forefront of the US fire. I think the US will be more involved, but the Philippines will also have more rational thinking. In this regard, it will also be more important to maintain a balance of interests between China and the United States and, in the words of Little Marcos, to create a delicate relationship between China and the United States. On May 13, 2022, local time, the United States-ASEAN Special Summit was held in Washington, D.C., with the participation of President Biden of the United States. But, at the same time, he may be more influenced by American factors. Little Marcos would still be somewhat different than Dutter’s “hard” America. On the one hand, it is determined by the current political ecological influence in the Philippines, and also by the political burden of the past years, including what I said earlier, on Little Marcos. One particularly important point that we cannot ignore is the deep partnership between the United States military and the Philippine military, which may have a bearing on China’s cooperation in the security and political spheres. The two main ways in which the U.S. controls President Phil's power. On the other hand, we have also seen reports that little Marcos has some financial litigation in the United States, and that this will be a leverage for the United States to restrain him. Ding Dho: That's what you're talking about. It's a very good perspective. In terms of US regulation of US-Phi relations, it has two strategies: First, it is a modus operandi to increase the dependence of the President of the Philippines on the United States by highlighting external security threats and internal political threats; and secondly, the United States places a great deal of emphasis on relations with other important political forces in the Philippines, thus constraining the authority of the President of the Philippines. In both cases, and as you have just mentioned, there are so-called economic problems in Little Marcos, which the Americans know and know may be a limitation on his philosophy of governance or diplomacy. The conflict in Russia-Ukraine alerts the world. In the wake of the Russian-Ukraine war, the international situation has changed as never before, and what do you think of its impact on the development of South-East Asian countries, whether political, economic or cultural? DJ: From what we have now observed, first of all, the economic and trade aspects of the economy have been more affected than ever. The conflict in Russia-Ukraine has led to a series of changes in international energy security, food security, and industrial chains. The impact on small and medium-sized countries has been more pronounced, particularly the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the epidemic. In the previous period, the post-epidemiological recovery had improved somewhat. But now, affected by the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the rise in energy and food prices, including the geopolitical impact on the leadership of South-East Asian countries, was more pronounced. 12 May 2022 local time, Washington, D.C., United States of America, two days of an ASEAN-United States summit, with United States President Biden taking a photo with the leaders of the visiting ASEAN countries On the other hand, even now with the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the United States is primarily focused on Europe, but its Indian-American strategy is clearly aimed at reshaping the strategic environment around China, where the United States will do its part in the future. They are, of course, more cautious in the light of some of the current statements of the ASEAN countries: first, to preserve the autonomous independence and centrality of ASEAN; and second, to have a clear resistance to the selection of side teams. At the same time, they also have a relatively rational understanding of China’s competition with such large powers in South-East Asia. From this perspective, as seen in a series of statements by China’s high-level leadership in the Foreign Ministry, we are calling for global governance to enter Asia at a time when bloc rivalries should be avoided, and the circle of cold war thinking should be avoided. All right, thank you very much, Dr. Ding, for sharing with us the story of the young Marcos who were elected to the Philippine presidential election. After taking office, he may continue the Dutelt’s “strategic acquiescence” to China’s policy, focus on trade and trade between China and the Philippines, preferring to set aside the “South China Arbitration Award” for the South China Sea. But small frictions in the South China Sea will occur, much more in need of rational resolution. Little Marcos will find a balance between China and the United States in dealing with relations between major powers.


Note: This is a translated version of the Chinese news media article. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.



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The new US moves to win over ASEAN, the Philippine president changes, how will the situation in the South China Sea change?


2022-05-14: [Article Link Core summary: The Philippine President-elect, Mr. Marcos Jr., or the continuation of the “strategic acquiescence” of the current President, Mr. Duarte, has become more pragmatic on the South China Sea issue and on China's policy towards China, arguing that the resolution of disputes with China over the South China Sea by military means is not a priority for the Philippines, and that this is a problem between China and the Philippines and should not involve the United States. During the six years of Dutelt's administration, two features characterized the development of good relations between China and the Philippines: first, the high-level interaction between China and the Philippines and the establishment of a well-functioning bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea. 3. The three main challenges that will be faced when Little Marcos takes office are: first, to bridge the political rift in the country; secondly, to address the issue of human life and lead the post-influence recovery in the Philippines; and finally, to address relations with the major Powers. 4. The political burden borne by Little Marcos, the political ecology of his country and the two main sets of ways in which the United States is controlling President Fédéric’s practices are likely to constrain his approach to governance. Compared to the power of Durtart, Little Marcos may be recovering. This recovery, in other words, creates a delicate balance between Central America and the United States. The United States-ASEAN Special Summit, in the context of the new version of the Indian-Pacific Strategy proposed by the Biden Government, could devote more resources and energy to bringing together its allies and partners to engage in geopolitical border demarcation confrontations. 6. The Russian-Ukraine conflict and epidemic overlap, rising energy, food prices and changes in the industrial chain have had a significant impact on South-East Asian countries. After the conflict in Russia-Ukraine, the US sought to reshape the strategic environment around China, focusing on the ASEAN countries. Currently, these countries are more cautious and have a clear resistance to the selection of side teams. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., Philippine presidential candidate (“Small Marcos”) Welcome to the "Hong Kong" issue. The Philippines’ general elections have ended, and little Marcos has won the election to become a new president. How he will deal with relations between the Philippines and China, as well as with the United States, will be the focus of much global attention when he takes office. It is widely accepted that he is among the most friendly candidates in China, a “second-generation president” who has taken a position on the question of the South China Sea. When he takes office, how will Sino-Fie's relationship develop? The Philippine President-elect is more “closer”: campaign rhetoric does not amount to governing policy. Hi, Dr. Ding! Do you think there will be any change in his policy towards Watt and Dutt's administration after Little Marcos takes office? Dingdu: From these combined statements during the campaign period, at least in the Philippine and Western media, it is widely recognized that among the candidates, Little Marcos is a relative friend of China. Some media have also pointed out that he may continue the “strategic acquiescence” of Durt, which is to make the Philippines more pragmatic in South China Sea policy and policy towards China, closer to Beijing's position, or a pro-City posture. From the current situation in the Philippine elections, it appears that among these candidates, Little Marcos is less likely to be interviewed by the media. From his attitudes and views on China’s relations with China, and on the South China Sea, we can also look at one or two of them. Little Marcos. In fact, there is a general consensus that little Marcos is friendly to China, and what about his attitude with regard to the South China Sea? Ding Dho: I think that one of the inescapable issues in the relationship between China and the Philippines, or one that often touches on the sensitive nerves of both countries, is the South China Sea problem, which is also a concern. At the beginning of this year, Little Marcos made some public statements: he suggested avoiding an escalation of conflict with China, while arguing that bilateral dialogue with Beijing should be pursued. For example, in January of this year, he said in a talk show that the South China Sea arbitration decision was “ineffectual,” because China did not accept the so-called award. At the same time, he said that he would not seek US help against China, even though he was an ally in a treaty. In February, he also said that a military solution to the dispute with China over the South China Sea was not a priority for the Philippines, and that it was a problem between China and the Philippines, and that if Americans intervened, it would certainly lead to a failure of that approach. In his relations with China, the media, both inside and outside the country, generally predicts that he will continue, to some extent, the Dutelt’s pragmatic policy toward China. From some comments during his election campaign, he believes that the way the Dutelt government engages with China is the best option for the Philippines. The current President of the Philippines, Dutelt. Of course, there is an inescapable problem: China is the country’s most important trading partner, and bilateral relations affect the country’s economic development. Especially now, when the epidemic is difficult to control, and when the country’s economic recovery is faced with an important and daunting task, trade and economic relations between China and the Philippines are also very important for the Philippines. In the area of security, he has the judgement that military confrontation with China is not the best option for the Philippines. At the same time, it is a non-confrontational state with China, which is a cornerstone of Philippine relations with China. China needs to remain cautious and optimistic. Hong Kong letter from Phoenix Network: Is there any concern that little Marcos has been elected, and that the development of the relationship between China and the Philippines is entirely optimistic? Dingdu: There are some media in the country, cheering and cheering are better outcomes. Of course, we may be more cautiously optimistic. On May 7th, 2022 local time, in Manila, Philippines, young Marcos participated in the campaign rally, whose supporters cheered. During these two days, when I met with a number of American scholars, they also said that within the United States Government there was hope for the election of Little Marcos and that it was a pleasure to see him elected. From this point of view, it may be about relations with China, the South China Sea. Little Marcos may be recovering as compared to the Dutt period. Such recycling may not be on either the US or China’s red line. China can now enjoy it, or understand it. Of course, there may still be frictions at the Middle Fifi Sea. First, it will not go beyond the capacity of the consultative mechanism; second, it will also be relatively calm and rational to deal with these issues, without allowing risk or adverse effects to spill over. Durert's been in power for six years. What's the progress on the Chinese-Fi relationship in the six years of Dutelt's administration? Ding Dho: A month ago, Chinese leaders and Dutelt just spoke, and shortly before that, the State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Foreign Minister of the Philippines Lochin also met. Indeed, there is a clearer overview of the development of bilateral relations over the past six years, as well as the proper treatment of the South China Sea, and it is also a vision for the future. On 3 April 2022, the State Councillor and Minister for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi held a meeting with the Foreign Minister of the Philippines, Lochin, who visited China in Anhui Town: China Ministry of Foreign Affairs website Over the past six years, we have seen a very clear dynamic or feature of the high-level interaction between China and the Philippines. Before the outbreak, the leaders of the two countries met frequently; after the outbreak, the calls were relatively frequent. This also reflects the fact that, following the issuance of the South China Sea Arbitration Award in 2016, and after the inauguration of Durt, he adopted a rational and pragmatic South China Sea policy and a policy towards China, which resulted in a marked increase in mutual political trust between the two sides as a result of the joint efforts of the two sides. Another specific feature is the establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea, which is functioning very well. At the same time, China and the Philippines have achieved a number of successes and results in maritime cooperation, particularly functional cooperation in low-sensitive maritime areas, including maritime law enforcement cooperation, cooperation in scientific research at sea, cooperation in fisheries, and cooperation in environmental protection. In particular, cooperation in marine fisheries has brought tangible benefits to Filipino fishermen and has effectively improved their livelihoods, reflecting a significant development in bilateral relations based on a rational approach to the South China Sea between the two countries. In a conversation with President Duarte, China’s leader said that China’s policy toward the Philippines was consistent and stable. I think that such a pronouncement is an audience that, in addition to the Dutelt government, in fact includes the new government of the Philippines. In addition to the South China Sea problem, Little Marcos faces three major challenges. Phoenix Network's Hong Kong letter: Durt's support in the Philippines is still very high. So how can he be better able to gain domestic support in the future, in the case of a “second-generation president” of Little Marcos, or in the case of big-country relations? Dingdu: I understand the problem: Little Marcos has a very high support rate, which reflects a characteristic of the current presidential election in the Philippines, which is not just a representative of the elite. This is a new development in recent years’ elections in the Philippines, in which the President is not necessarily elected if he merely represents the elite. It also reflects the fact that the elite must be added to the public at large, including during the Dutelt campaign. His social power base throughout the presidency, or the legitimacy of power, is expanding. In the past, America’s grip on US-FP relations was more based on a political power structure such as a weak Philippine president. The strong Philippine president, who has a relatively expanded and consolidated public opinion base, has greater autonomy and independence in diplomatic decision-making. On the positive side, this expansion of presidential legitimacy provides much strategic space for the Philippines to pursue a more pragmatic and rational policy towards China; on the negative side, however, in order to continue to hold the Philippines, or to keep the Philippines from diverging from its overall strategy, he may put more pressure and resources into exerting pressure on coercion. Of course, we would also like to see a difference between Little Marcos and Durt, and this time a lot of media attention, that is to say, he had a certain political burden in the past. In particular, his father's assessment of him during his term of office, both within the Philippines and in some extraterritorial Powers, may have held him hostage to the idea of governance. On May 10, 2022 local time, Little Marcos commemorated his father at the hero's cemetery in the city of Taj, a suburb of Manila, Philippines. At the same time, we would like to see Sarah (Doutert's daughter) running for the presidency at the beginning of this election in the Philippines, which culminated in a mix of President Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Sarah as a result of a coordinated set of interests. As I personally see it, Sarah’s vice-presidentship may also hold him hostage. On the positive side, it may be more likely that this relatively pragmatic and independent foreign policy, relations with China, will continue; on the negative side, it may be that Little Marcos will not be as strong as Durrant’s presidency, and there will be some restraint. • Sara Dutelt, Vice-President-elect of the Philippines (left) and his father Rodrigo Dutelt What are the challenges that young Marcos will face when he takes office? Ding Dho: So I look at this question, which means that the South China Sea problem or controversy is only one aspect, a small part, and not all, of Sino-Phi relations. The content and expansiveness of Sino-Physic relations are so numerous that they include areas of cooperation in trade, politics, humanities, etc. In view of the international situation as a whole and the internal situation in the Philippine Government, the small Marcos may also face a number of challenges, mainly from a domestic perspective. First, we have seen elections in recent years in countries neighbouring China, such as the Philippines and, more recently, South Korea, even the United States, where the first task facing their elected members after the general elections is to bridge this rift in domestic politics. This is a feature of the changes in the political environment in China’s neighbouring countries in recent years. Smaller Marcos is no exception, and he is faced with the task of bridging the political divide. At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, the impact of the epidemic on the Philippines is still very high, as is the pressure on the population to recover from the epidemic. In particular, his concern for the livelihood of the people during the elections, as reflected by the people's demands of vital interest to the people, was a daunting challenge. The third challenge is to deal with relations between major Powers or diplomatic relations. In this trade-off, he may be more focused on his internal affairs, which cannot be separated from the healthy development of Sino-Fi relations. China’s assistance in all kinds of immunization, including vaccines, and economic transactions bring real benefits to the people of the Philippines. At this level, his policy toward China will be pragmatic and rational. At the same time, there must be inertia in the development of the Sino-fi relationship that has accumulated over the six-year Dutt period. At least in the case of China and the Philippines, one of the most beneficial ways for the two peoples is to maximize the inertia. I believe that he has had enough political wisdom and means to deal with these difficult issues from the years of his administration, including his life in the past. On 28 February 2021 local time, in Manila, Philippines, the Chinese Air Force brought the first Chinese-produced Covid-19 vaccine to Villarmo Air Force Base Are the countries of the region more conscious, and the United States can't stir the South China Sea any longer? On May 12th, 13th, the US-ASEAN Special Summit was held in Washington, D.C., and what are the implications for the situation in the South China Sea? Ding Dho: From some of our current observations of the main political forces in the Philippines, these major politicians have some common understanding of the South China Sea issues, particularly the South China Sea Arbitration case. One of the more obvious examples of this commonality is the perception that the Philippines is the winner of the South China Sea arbitration case, and that the “arbitral award” is binding and effective. The specific difference is merely how to apply the award, how to deal specifically with some of the differences in relations with China and the South China Sea; for example, Dutelt, who is (opt) to set aside the “judgement”. Although he had also publicly claimed before the United Nations General Assembly that the “award” was part of international law, there was a clear consensus that the Philippines and China did not discuss issues on the basis of “arbitral awards”, a strategy of Durt. After Marcos came to power, I think, at least in this respect, he prefers a more pragmatic and rational approach to this “arbitral award.” Of course, one thing that can be foreseen is that, at least in the disputed waters or on the atolls concerned, there may be some friction between China and the Philippines, which requires both sides to calmly and rationally manage the crisis and avoid its spillover. But now, in the context of such broad frameworks as the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the introduction by the United States of a new version of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, it is not just China, I think, that the countries of the region are aware of it. In view of the exacerbation of the situation in the South China Sea over the past few years, including in the aftermath of the “arbitration” case, there is still a clear understanding in the region of the proximate strategy of the United States to put these small and medium-sized countries in the forefront of the US fire. I think the US will be more involved, but the Philippines will also have more rational thinking. In this regard, it will also be more important to maintain a balance of interests between China and the United States and, in the words of Little Marcos, to create a delicate relationship between China and the United States. On May 13, 2022, local time, the United States-ASEAN Special Summit was held in Washington, D.C., with the participation of President Biden of the United States. But, at the same time, he may be more influenced by American factors. Little Marcos would still be somewhat different than Dutter’s “hard” America. On the one hand, it is determined by the current political ecological influence in the Philippines, and also by the political burden of the past years, including what I said earlier, on Little Marcos. One particularly important point that we cannot ignore is the deep partnership between the United States military and the Philippine military, which may have a bearing on China’s cooperation in the security and political spheres. The two main ways in which the U.S. controls President Phil's power. On the other hand, we have also seen reports that little Marcos has some financial litigation in the United States, and that this will be a leverage for the United States to restrain him. Ding Dho: That's what you're talking about. It's a very good perspective. In terms of US regulation of US-Phi relations, it has two strategies: First, it is a modus operandi to increase the dependence of the President of the Philippines on the United States by highlighting external security threats and internal political threats; and secondly, the United States places a great deal of emphasis on relations with other important political forces in the Philippines, thus constraining the authority of the President of the Philippines. In both cases, and as you have just mentioned, there are so-called economic problems in Little Marcos, which the Americans know and know may be a limitation on his philosophy of governance or diplomacy. The conflict in Russia-Ukraine alerts the world. In the wake of the Russian-Ukraine war, the international situation has changed as never before, and what do you think of its impact on the development of South-East Asian countries, whether political, economic or cultural? DJ: From what we have now observed, first of all, the economic and trade aspects of the economy have been more affected than ever. The conflict in Russia-Ukraine has led to a series of changes in international energy security, food security, and industrial chains. The impact on small and medium-sized countries has been more pronounced, particularly the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the epidemic. In the previous period, the post-epidemiological recovery had improved somewhat. But now, affected by the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the rise in energy and food prices, including the geopolitical impact on the leadership of South-East Asian countries, was more pronounced. 12 May 2022 local time, Washington, D.C., United States of America, two days of an ASEAN-United States summit, with United States President Biden taking a photo with the leaders of the visiting ASEAN countries On the other hand, even now with the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the United States is primarily focused on Europe, but its Indian-American strategy is clearly aimed at reshaping the strategic environment around China, where the United States will do its part in the future. They are, of course, more cautious in the light of some of the current statements of the ASEAN countries: first, to preserve the autonomous independence and centrality of ASEAN; and second, to have a clear resistance to the selection of side teams. At the same time, they also have a relatively rational understanding of China’s competition with such large powers in South-East Asia. From this perspective, as seen in a series of statements by China’s high-level leadership in the Foreign Ministry, we are calling for global governance to enter Asia at a time when bloc rivalries should be avoided, and the circle of cold war thinking should be avoided. All right, thank you very much, Dr. Ding, for sharing with us the story of the young Marcos who were elected to the Philippine presidential election. After taking office, he may continue the Dutelt’s “strategic acquiescence” to China’s policy, focus on trade and trade between China and the Philippines, preferring to set aside the “South China Arbitration Award” for the South China Sea. But small frictions in the South China Sea will occur, much more in need of rational resolution. Little Marcos will find a balance between China and the United States in dealing with relations between major powers.

Note: This is a translated version of the Chinese news media article. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.

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