Justin Yifu Lin: One day China's economy will be twice that of the United States, and then the United States will have a good relationship with China


2022-05-14: [Article Link On May 14th, the 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum was held. Lin Yifu, professor and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University, Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, and Dean of the School of South-South Cooperation and Development of Peking University, attended and gave a speech. Lin Yifu pointed out that since the 21st century, emerging market economies have risen rapidly, especially China. In 2000, China's share of global GDP was 6.9%, and in 2018, it accounted for 16.8% of global GDP, an increase of 9.9%. What is the reason for China's rapid economic growth? How can emerging countries achieve this in the new century? Lin Yifu said that it is because emerging economic markets have the advantage of backward entrants, and the cost of scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading is much lower; at the same time, they can also benefit from globalization, which allows emerging markets to have enough markets to give full play to their competitive advantages. He pointed out that among the changes in the global landscape, the biggest loser is the United States, because the United States has been the largest economy in the world in the 20th century. By 2014, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest economy At the same time, Lin Yifu also pointed out that from an economic point of view, China's economy is the largest, but the per capita GDP level of the United States is higher. In the face of today's situation, what is the best strategy for China to go next? Lin Yifu gave two suggestions. The first suggestion is to maintain a dynamic economic development. Lin Yifu pointed out that China is in a catch-up state. China's per capita GDP is equivalent to one-quarter of the level of the United States, and the United States has a higher per capita GDP and technology per capita ratio. But China is constantly making great strides to catch up, and there is an advantage for the latter. He analyzed and pointed out that China's current technology penetration rate is similar to that of Germany in the 1940s, Japan in the 1950s, and South Korea in the 1980s. The economic growth rate of countries with this come-from-behind model is 8%-9%. For China, there is an annual economic growth potential of 8%. At the same time, China is already the world's largest economy in terms of "purchasing power parity". It has a very large domestic market, a high proportion of the international economy, and a good political environment to ensure its stable growth. Lin Yifu believes that China should give full play to these advantages and maintain dynamic economic growth. The second suggestion is to maintain an open attitude and become an promoter of globalization. Why is this suggested? First, Lin Yifu pointed out that because China is now the world's largest economy, we can maintain a potential economic growth rate of 8%, and we can actually achieve 5-6% growth every year. If China can maintain such rapid growth, it will continue to contribute to the development of the global economy, so China will continue to contribute at least a quarter of the world's growth or even more every year. Second, Lin Yifu pointed out that China is not only the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power, China is also the world's largest trading country. Now China is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries, and the second largest trading partner of more than 70 countries. "So in the world, you can calculate that for 90% of the world's countries, China is either their largest trading partner or the second largest trading partner. "Lin Yifu said. Lin Yifu believes that trade is a win-win situation, especially in the context of the contemporary globalized economy, everyone should achieve a win-win situation of 1+1 greater than 2, so he recommends that China maintain high-speed dynamic economic growth and maintain an open reform attitude. Finally, Lin Yifu pointed out that China's GDP per capita accounts for 50% of the United States, and China's population is actually four times that of the United States, and one day it will be twice that of the total U.S. economy. "That day has come, and the United States will have to make a balance and choice. It must trade with China and maintain good relations with China. In particular, only by dealing with China can they maintain their own employment rate, ensure that their country benefits and maintain normal economic relations, and the new global order established in this way is a stable and peaceful new order. "Lin Yifu said finally.


Note: This is a translated version of the Chinese news media article. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.



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Justin Yifu Lin: One day China's economy will be twice that of the United States, and then the United States will have a good relationship with China


2022-05-14: [Article Link On May 14th, the 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum was held. Lin Yifu, professor and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University, Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, and Dean of the School of South-South Cooperation and Development of Peking University, attended and gave a speech. Lin Yifu pointed out that since the 21st century, emerging market economies have risen rapidly, especially China. In 2000, China's share of global GDP was 6.9%, and in 2018, it accounted for 16.8% of global GDP, an increase of 9.9%. What is the reason for China's rapid economic growth? How can emerging countries achieve this in the new century? Lin Yifu said that it is because emerging economic markets have the advantage of backward entrants, and the cost of scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading is much lower; at the same time, they can also benefit from globalization, which allows emerging markets to have enough markets to give full play to their competitive advantages. He pointed out that among the changes in the global landscape, the biggest loser is the United States, because the United States has been the largest economy in the world in the 20th century. By 2014, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest economy At the same time, Lin Yifu also pointed out that from an economic point of view, China's economy is the largest, but the per capita GDP level of the United States is higher. In the face of today's situation, what is the best strategy for China to go next? Lin Yifu gave two suggestions. The first suggestion is to maintain a dynamic economic development. Lin Yifu pointed out that China is in a catch-up state. China's per capita GDP is equivalent to one-quarter of the level of the United States, and the United States has a higher per capita GDP and technology per capita ratio. But China is constantly making great strides to catch up, and there is an advantage for the latter. He analyzed and pointed out that China's current technology penetration rate is similar to that of Germany in the 1940s, Japan in the 1950s, and South Korea in the 1980s. The economic growth rate of countries with this come-from-behind model is 8%-9%. For China, there is an annual economic growth potential of 8%. At the same time, China is already the world's largest economy in terms of "purchasing power parity". It has a very large domestic market, a high proportion of the international economy, and a good political environment to ensure its stable growth. Lin Yifu believes that China should give full play to these advantages and maintain dynamic economic growth. The second suggestion is to maintain an open attitude and become an promoter of globalization. Why is this suggested? First, Lin Yifu pointed out that because China is now the world's largest economy, we can maintain a potential economic growth rate of 8%, and we can actually achieve 5-6% growth every year. If China can maintain such rapid growth, it will continue to contribute to the development of the global economy, so China will continue to contribute at least a quarter of the world's growth or even more every year. Second, Lin Yifu pointed out that China is not only the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power, China is also the world's largest trading country. Now China is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries, and the second largest trading partner of more than 70 countries. "So in the world, you can calculate that for 90% of the world's countries, China is either their largest trading partner or the second largest trading partner. "Lin Yifu said. Lin Yifu believes that trade is a win-win situation, especially in the context of the contemporary globalized economy, everyone should achieve a win-win situation of 1+1 greater than 2, so he recommends that China maintain high-speed dynamic economic growth and maintain an open reform attitude. Finally, Lin Yifu pointed out that China's GDP per capita accounts for 50% of the United States, and China's population is actually four times that of the United States, and one day it will be twice that of the total U.S. economy. "That day has come, and the United States will have to make a balance and choice. It must trade with China and maintain good relations with China. In particular, only by dealing with China can they maintain their own employment rate, ensure that their country benefits and maintain normal economic relations, and the new global order established in this way is a stable and peaceful new order. "Lin Yifu said finally.

Note: This is a translated version of the Chinese news media article. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.

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