Will World War 3 start here?


2022-06-24: [Chinese Article Link A pen/a dove-a-dove-a-dove-a-dove-a-dove-a-dove. Kaliningrad, will this Russian enclave in Europe become the “powder bucket” that triggered World War III? This has become one of the most worrying issues for the European media. The ban on the transit of Russian “sensitive goods” to Kaliningrad in Lithuania triggered a strong backlash by the Russian Federation. Mr. Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, warned that Lithuania's approach was “unprecedented” and that the Russian side was bound to counter it by taking measures “to make the Baltic States suffer”. As a party to this contradiction, Lithuania, on the one hand, pretends to be innocent and claims to be implementing the EU sanctions against Russia; on the other hand, the President of Lithuania has taken a hard stance and expressed readiness to respond to any unfriendly actions by Russia. As Lithuania's allies in NATO, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany have expressed their support for the measures taken by Lithuania and have called on Russia to be calm. The United States has added that “our commitment to NATO Article V is unbreakable”. In the context of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, is it really possible that Kaliningrad could trigger a world war? One. After meeting with the diplomatic representatives of Lithuania and the European Union in Russia the previous two days, public opinion in the Russian Federation was discussing means of responding to the “blocking of Kaliningrad” in Lithuania, which would hurt Lithuania. According to an article published in the Russian newspaper Opinions 23, entitled “The Russian response will hit the Lithuanian economy hard” the Kaliningrad region has been blocked as a result of Lithuanian action. Important goods have been prevented from being transported from Russia into Kaliningrad. At the informal level, it has been said that Lithuania may soon cut off the supply of gas to the Russian enclave. The region supplies gas through the Minsk-Venius-Kaunas-Gariningrad pipeline. Lithuania describes this situation as “implementing EU sanctions against Russia”, but Moscow considers it a deliberate imposition of stricter restrictions on Russia. Moscow calls for the immediate lifting of illegal restrictions, but Lithuania ignores them. As a result, Russia will take retaliatory measures, and its response will not be diplomatic. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Zaharova, has stated that Russia’s departments are already working on a response. Sergei Kondradiyev, Deputy Director of the Economic Department of the Russian Institute of Energy and Finance, stated that if there were problems with rail and land transport, it would have to be transported by sea. But the risk of energy blockade in Kaliningrad is even greater. If the flow of natural gas through the pipeline is stopped, the Russian side will arrange for the delivery of liquefied natural gas to the Kaliningrad region in a timely manner. For example, Lithuanian products are still on the Russian shelf. If Russia imposes retaliatory sanctions on Lithuania, it will have a real impact on Lithuania’s economy and budget. The Russian media believe that the first thing Moscow can do is to refuse to buy Lithuanian goods and to prohibit their transit through other EU countries, thus preventing Lithuanian goods from entering the Russian market through neighbouring Latvia. Secondly, Moscow may prohibit the procurement of sensitive goods from the Russian Federation. Moscow may impose sanctions on Lithuanian energy companies, following the example of the sanctions imposed on Poland by the Russian Gas Industry Holdings. According to Kondradiyev, a weak response from Moscow under the current circumstances could inspire more Eastern European countries to follow suit, and some potential “opposites” were attempting to impose similar restrictions on Russia. Why is it that Russia's reaction to Lithuania may be better than “retaliatory sanctions” against the EU as a whole? The Russian media believe that, because the Baltic states are more vulnerable to the deterioration of relations with Russia, their economies are still largely linked to Russia, and these countries are one of the EU's weakest economies. According to the Russian newspaper The Pravda 23, the blockade of Kaliningrad by the EU and Lithuania gives Russia ample “ground to declare war.” The Russian side is discussing measures by the Russian air defence forces to initiate the blockade of Lithuanian airspace. Lithuania is also concerned about being “closed off the skies” by the Russian side. According to an analysis of “Voice of Germany” articles on the website, the Russian blockade of Lithuanian airspace would be regarded as a “de facto declaration of war”, and Lithuania was a member of NATO, which would have to respond militarily. Others argue that Russia could first try to occupy the Suvauki corridor (between Kaliningrad and Belarus) in order to lift the blockade on the region. But then NATO would have a reason to intervene directly in the conflict in Ukraine. According to Russian military expert Knutov, these measures were more aimed at the outbreak of hostilities than at Russia's reaction to the trade blockade in the Kaliningrad region. At present, Russia has other leverages, such as trade sanctions, border-crossing restrictions on EU and Lithuanian goods. Behind the proposed air blockade against Lithuania will only provoke Russian military action. Knutov stated that, in response to Vilnius's provocation, Russia and Belarus might impose a blockade on Lithuania, leaving Lithuania completely under economic blockade. Another Russian military expert, Leonkov, stated that the blockade of Kaliningrad by Lithuania “was tantamount to the beginning of the NATO aggression against Russia, represented by Lithuania.” Lithuania was afraid to prevent Russia from travelling from the sea to Kaliningrad, as it was tantamount to a declaration of war against Moscow. In his view, there were many economic instruments in Russia that could affect Lithuania, but should not be adopted gradually, but should be adopted on a one-time basis in order to have an impact on it. Earlier, according to the Russian media, Moscow had several other counter-measures against Lithuania: non-recognition of Lithuania's independence; withdrawal from the EU agreement with Lithuania; demand for the return of land previously occupied by the former Soviet Union in Klepeda; and delinking Lithuania from the Russian energy system. At present, Russia has announced military performances in the Kaliningrad region, where the Russian Baltic fleet will conduct missile and artillery exercises. On the scale of the exercises, about 1,000 Russian officers and more than 100 weapons and special equipment from the missile and artillery forces will participate. 2 In response to a warning from the Russian side, the President of Lithuania, Nauseda 22, in an interview with Reuters, stated that after the country banned goods subject to EU sanctions from crossing its territory into Kaliningrad, Lithuania was ready to face some form of reprisals from the Russian side. In this video interview, Nauseda said: “We are ready to deal with some unfriendly actions from the Russian side, including the BRELL power cut-off or other actions.” Although the Baltic three countries joined the European Union a decade ago, they are still more dependent on Russian electricity systems for their energy systems. The BRELL system is a shared power grid among Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic countries. For its part, Lithuania stated that it was precisely in preparation for today's situation. Nauseda claimed that he was not convinced that Russia would challenge Lithuania militarily, because Lithuania, unlike Ukraine, was a member of NATO, and in his interview he once again defended Lithuania's behaviour, emphasizing that it was a decision to implement at the EU level. Nauseda said: “This has nothing to do with the bilateral relations between Russia and Lithuania.” On June 18, Lithuania announced the entry into force of a ban that would no longer allow goods on the Russian sanctions list of the EU to be transported by rail to Kaliningrad, including coal, metals, construction materials, high-tech products, etc. Nauseda believes that the European Commission's interpretation of the content of the sanctions to the Russian authorities would be a very good measure to dispel misunderstandings and could defuse some of the tensions that have emerged. The escalation of the tension would not benefit either side. It is clear that Nauseda is also heartless and concerned about making matters worse. The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Borelli, once defended the decision of Lithuania, stating that, although “always fearing reprisals from Russia”, Lithuania was “not guilty”. However, Borelli did not let go of the ban on Kaliningrad. Now that Lithuania has dared to do so, of course there is someone behind it. “We support our NATO allies and we support Lithuania”, United States State Department spokesman Price 21, in response to a journalist's question, stressed the commitment of the United States to article V of NATO — that an attack on one country would constitute an attack on all nations and would never be broken.” Moreover, Price stated that the United States welcomed the “unprecedented economic measures” taken against Russia by Lithuania and other countries in connection with Russia's military operations in Ukraine. Asked about the statement by the Russian side, Price said: “We do not intend to speculate about Russia's blades or its bluffs, or even to give it extra air time”. The implications of provocation are already strong. In addition, British Foreign Secretary Tlas22 stated through his social media platform: “The United Kingdom fully supports Lithuania in preventing the transit of sanctioned goods from Russia within its borders. In the face of Russia's actions, we must remain strong and challenge these unjustifiable threats.” The German side has also warned Russia not to react to the “cargo dispute” leading to Kaliningrad. The German Federal Government spokesman Herbestette said, “We call on Russia to refrain from any measures contrary to international law.” Hebestet believes that Lithuania has taken these actions within the framework of the EU sanctions against Russia. Only some commodities (about 50%) have been affected by the sanctions, and no one has been sanctioned. “Therefore, we categorically reject the counter-measures announced by Russia.” In response to statements by Lithuania and the United States, for example, Peskov warned earlier on 22 that the Russian side was discussing retaliatory measures against the entry into Russia through Kaliningrad of goods subject to EU sanctions in Lithuania. From a geographical point of view, Kaliningrad has a very important strategic value for Russia. Kaliningrad is an isolated port city: it lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, Poland to the south, Lithuania to the east, and Lithuania to the north. There are two main routes between Kaliningrad and Russia, one by rail, from Russia to Kaliningrad via Belarus and Lithuania, and the other by sea, which sails from St. Petersburg, Russia, across the Baltic Sea, nearly 1,000 kilometres into Kaliningrad. As an enclave, Kaliningrad is about 680 miles away from the Russian capital, Moscow. As to how Russia (the former Soviet Union) acquired the enclave, the word “fix” has been written in detail. From a military point of view, Kaliningrad is Russia’s only year-round ice-free port in the Baltic Sea and an important base for the Russian naval fleet. Its strategic position makes it unnecessary for Russian ships to bypass northern Europe and cross the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, the existence of Kaliningrad means that Russia can position its military forces behind NATO's “backs” and, if necessary, it can deploy nuclear weapons in the region. In March this year, Russia ordered nuclear forces to be on high alert in response to the growing pressure from NATO countries. The deployment of short- or medium-range ballistic missiles carrying nuclear warheads there would take a shorter time to attack European targets, providing Russia with a more assured pre-emptive strike capability. According to informed sources, Russia has deployed the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system in the Kaliningrad region and the Iskander ballistic missile system, which can contain nuclear warheads. Three. The new dispute between Russia and the United States-led NATO countries surrounding Kaliningrad is indeed a cause for some concern. Russia's new contradictions with NATO, especially in the current climate of ongoing tension in the Russian-Ukraine conflict, add to the old ones, adding to the perception that the situation is difficult to estimate and control. Zhang Hongn believes that Lithuania’s ban on the transit of some Russian goods to Kaliningrad is actually part of the EU’s sanctions against Russia. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the EU has imposed several rounds of sanctions against Russia, with a fifth round of sanctions exempting Kaliningrad from the sixth round of sanctions announced in early June. Therefore, the Lithuanian side stressed that this was not its own individual sanction, but rather its implementation of the EU sanctions, and that the European Commission had been consulted on an ad hoc basis before the announcement. The goods currently affected by the ban are mainly coal, metals, construction materials, and items related to advanced technology, while other passengers and cargo not subject to EU sanctions are not affected. Among the goods embargoed, cement and steel are the ones most affected in Kaliningrad, and there will be some difficulties in the short term after the ban. However, Changandong Alikhanov of the Kaliningrad region has also indicated that goods prohibited from transiting through Lithuania will be transported by sea. Russia has also increased the frequency of shipments by sea from Leningrad region to Kaliningrad region. As the population of Kaliningrad is only 1 million, the volume of goods transported by rail with Russia is not too large per year. Overall, the difficulties are not insurmountable. This was seen by the Russian side more as a provocation and diplomatic contempt of Russia than an economic loss, as a threat to and obstruction of normal economic activity between it and Kaliningrad, and was therefore very strong. Russia's response, on the one hand, is to avoid the recurrence of similar events and, on the other hand, to seek the immunity of Kaliningrad from EU sanctions against Russia. According to Zhang Hong, while some in Russia have military proposals, there is little chance that Russia will actually take military action and that further confrontation with NATO will take place. Russia does not want to have a positive conflict with NATO now, in terms of both will and capability. After the Russian-Ukraine conflict, there is a tacit agreement between Russia and NATO that there will be no positive conflict between the two sides and no nuclear war. From the point of view of the United States, as the leader of Western allies and NATO, it is certain in this context to reaffirm its obligations to its member States in order to maintain the stability of the Western Alliance and the reliability of NATO's mutual security confidence. However, from the point of view of the United States, the European Union and Lithuania, it was hoped that the matter would be a friction, not a hot war, in the context of a controlled sanctions and counter-sanctions, containment and counter-constraint. Moreover, the EU’s response has been relatively moderate, even showing a willingness to communicate and engage in dialogue with Russia. Because it is clear that the EU does not want to continue to fuel tensions and create new troubles and contradictions with Russia in the current climate of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, Kaliningrad is a relatively special enclave. During the process of accession to the European Union by the Baltic three countries, the European Union and Russia had bilateral agreements committing themselves to facilitating the movement of persons and goods between Russia and Kaliningrad.


Note: This is a machine translated version of the Chinese news media article. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.



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Will World War 3 start here?


2022-06-24: [Article Link A pen/a dove-a-dove-a-dove-a-dove-a-dove-a-dove. Kaliningrad, will this Russian enclave in Europe become the “powder bucket” that triggered World War III? This has become one of the most worrying issues for the European media. The ban on the transit of Russian “sensitive goods” to Kaliningrad in Lithuania triggered a strong backlash by the Russian Federation. Mr. Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, warned that Lithuania's approach was “unprecedented” and that the Russian side was bound to counter it by taking measures “to make the Baltic States suffer”. As a party to this contradiction, Lithuania, on the one hand, pretends to be innocent and claims to be implementing the EU sanctions against Russia; on the other hand, the President of Lithuania has taken a hard stance and expressed readiness to respond to any unfriendly actions by Russia. As Lithuania's allies in NATO, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany have expressed their support for the measures taken by Lithuania and have called on Russia to be calm. The United States has added that “our commitment to NATO Article V is unbreakable”. In the context of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, is it really possible that Kaliningrad could trigger a world war? One. After meeting with the diplomatic representatives of Lithuania and the European Union in Russia the previous two days, public opinion in the Russian Federation was discussing means of responding to the “blocking of Kaliningrad” in Lithuania, which would hurt Lithuania. According to an article published in the Russian newspaper Opinions 23, entitled “The Russian response will hit the Lithuanian economy hard” the Kaliningrad region has been blocked as a result of Lithuanian action. Important goods have been prevented from being transported from Russia into Kaliningrad. At the informal level, it has been said that Lithuania may soon cut off the supply of gas to the Russian enclave. The region supplies gas through the Minsk-Venius-Kaunas-Gariningrad pipeline. Lithuania describes this situation as “implementing EU sanctions against Russia”, but Moscow considers it a deliberate imposition of stricter restrictions on Russia. Moscow calls for the immediate lifting of illegal restrictions, but Lithuania ignores them. As a result, Russia will take retaliatory measures, and its response will not be diplomatic. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Zaharova, has stated that Russia’s departments are already working on a response. Sergei Kondradiyev, Deputy Director of the Economic Department of the Russian Institute of Energy and Finance, stated that if there were problems with rail and land transport, it would have to be transported by sea. But the risk of energy blockade in Kaliningrad is even greater. If the flow of natural gas through the pipeline is stopped, the Russian side will arrange for the delivery of liquefied natural gas to the Kaliningrad region in a timely manner. For example, Lithuanian products are still on the Russian shelf. If Russia imposes retaliatory sanctions on Lithuania, it will have a real impact on Lithuania’s economy and budget. The Russian media believe that the first thing Moscow can do is to refuse to buy Lithuanian goods and to prohibit their transit through other EU countries, thus preventing Lithuanian goods from entering the Russian market through neighbouring Latvia. Secondly, Moscow may prohibit the procurement of sensitive goods from the Russian Federation. Moscow may impose sanctions on Lithuanian energy companies, following the example of the sanctions imposed on Poland by the Russian Gas Industry Holdings. According to Kondradiyev, a weak response from Moscow under the current circumstances could inspire more Eastern European countries to follow suit, and some potential “opposites” were attempting to impose similar restrictions on Russia. Why is it that Russia's reaction to Lithuania may be better than “retaliatory sanctions” against the EU as a whole? The Russian media believe that, because the Baltic states are more vulnerable to the deterioration of relations with Russia, their economies are still largely linked to Russia, and these countries are one of the EU's weakest economies. According to the Russian newspaper The Pravda 23, the blockade of Kaliningrad by the EU and Lithuania gives Russia ample “ground to declare war.” The Russian side is discussing measures by the Russian air defence forces to initiate the blockade of Lithuanian airspace. Lithuania is also concerned about being “closed off the skies” by the Russian side. According to an analysis of “Voice of Germany” articles on the website, the Russian blockade of Lithuanian airspace would be regarded as a “de facto declaration of war”, and Lithuania was a member of NATO, which would have to respond militarily. Others argue that Russia could first try to occupy the Suvauki corridor (between Kaliningrad and Belarus) in order to lift the blockade on the region. But then NATO would have a reason to intervene directly in the conflict in Ukraine. According to Russian military expert Knutov, these measures were more aimed at the outbreak of hostilities than at Russia's reaction to the trade blockade in the Kaliningrad region. At present, Russia has other leverages, such as trade sanctions, border-crossing restrictions on EU and Lithuanian goods. Behind the proposed air blockade against Lithuania will only provoke Russian military action. Knutov stated that, in response to Vilnius's provocation, Russia and Belarus might impose a blockade on Lithuania, leaving Lithuania completely under economic blockade. Another Russian military expert, Leonkov, stated that the blockade of Kaliningrad by Lithuania “was tantamount to the beginning of the NATO aggression against Russia, represented by Lithuania.” Lithuania was afraid to prevent Russia from travelling from the sea to Kaliningrad, as it was tantamount to a declaration of war against Moscow. In his view, there were many economic instruments in Russia that could affect Lithuania, but should not be adopted gradually, but should be adopted on a one-time basis in order to have an impact on it. Earlier, according to the Russian media, Moscow had several other counter-measures against Lithuania: non-recognition of Lithuania's independence; withdrawal from the EU agreement with Lithuania; demand for the return of land previously occupied by the former Soviet Union in Klepeda; and delinking Lithuania from the Russian energy system. At present, Russia has announced military performances in the Kaliningrad region, where the Russian Baltic fleet will conduct missile and artillery exercises. On the scale of the exercises, about 1,000 Russian officers and more than 100 weapons and special equipment from the missile and artillery forces will participate. 2 In response to a warning from the Russian side, the President of Lithuania, Nauseda 22, in an interview with Reuters, stated that after the country banned goods subject to EU sanctions from crossing its territory into Kaliningrad, Lithuania was ready to face some form of reprisals from the Russian side. In this video interview, Nauseda said: “We are ready to deal with some unfriendly actions from the Russian side, including the BRELL power cut-off or other actions.” Although the Baltic three countries joined the European Union a decade ago, they are still more dependent on Russian electricity systems for their energy systems. The BRELL system is a shared power grid among Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic countries. For its part, Lithuania stated that it was precisely in preparation for today's situation. Nauseda claimed that he was not convinced that Russia would challenge Lithuania militarily, because Lithuania, unlike Ukraine, was a member of NATO, and in his interview he once again defended Lithuania's behaviour, emphasizing that it was a decision to implement at the EU level. Nauseda said: “This has nothing to do with the bilateral relations between Russia and Lithuania.” On June 18, Lithuania announced the entry into force of a ban that would no longer allow goods on the Russian sanctions list of the EU to be transported by rail to Kaliningrad, including coal, metals, construction materials, high-tech products, etc. Nauseda believes that the European Commission's interpretation of the content of the sanctions to the Russian authorities would be a very good measure to dispel misunderstandings and could defuse some of the tensions that have emerged. The escalation of the tension would not benefit either side. It is clear that Nauseda is also heartless and concerned about making matters worse. The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Borelli, once defended the decision of Lithuania, stating that, although “always fearing reprisals from Russia”, Lithuania was “not guilty”. However, Borelli did not let go of the ban on Kaliningrad. Now that Lithuania has dared to do so, of course there is someone behind it. “We support our NATO allies and we support Lithuania”, United States State Department spokesman Price 21, in response to a journalist's question, stressed the commitment of the United States to article V of NATO — that an attack on one country would constitute an attack on all nations and would never be broken.” Moreover, Price stated that the United States welcomed the “unprecedented economic measures” taken against Russia by Lithuania and other countries in connection with Russia's military operations in Ukraine. Asked about the statement by the Russian side, Price said: “We do not intend to speculate about Russia's blades or its bluffs, or even to give it extra air time”. The implications of provocation are already strong. In addition, British Foreign Secretary Tlas22 stated through his social media platform: “The United Kingdom fully supports Lithuania in preventing the transit of sanctioned goods from Russia within its borders. In the face of Russia's actions, we must remain strong and challenge these unjustifiable threats.” The German side has also warned Russia not to react to the “cargo dispute” leading to Kaliningrad. The German Federal Government spokesman Herbestette said, “We call on Russia to refrain from any measures contrary to international law.” Hebestet believes that Lithuania has taken these actions within the framework of the EU sanctions against Russia. Only some commodities (about 50%) have been affected by the sanctions, and no one has been sanctioned. “Therefore, we categorically reject the counter-measures announced by Russia.” In response to statements by Lithuania and the United States, for example, Peskov warned earlier on 22 that the Russian side was discussing retaliatory measures against the entry into Russia through Kaliningrad of goods subject to EU sanctions in Lithuania. From a geographical point of view, Kaliningrad has a very important strategic value for Russia. Kaliningrad is an isolated port city: it lies on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, Poland to the south, Lithuania to the east, and Lithuania to the north. There are two main routes between Kaliningrad and Russia, one by rail, from Russia to Kaliningrad via Belarus and Lithuania, and the other by sea, which sails from St. Petersburg, Russia, across the Baltic Sea, nearly 1,000 kilometres into Kaliningrad. As an enclave, Kaliningrad is about 680 miles away from the Russian capital, Moscow. As to how Russia (the former Soviet Union) acquired the enclave, the word “fix” has been written in detail. From a military point of view, Kaliningrad is Russia’s only year-round ice-free port in the Baltic Sea and an important base for the Russian naval fleet. Its strategic position makes it unnecessary for Russian ships to bypass northern Europe and cross the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, the existence of Kaliningrad means that Russia can position its military forces behind NATO's “backs” and, if necessary, it can deploy nuclear weapons in the region. In March this year, Russia ordered nuclear forces to be on high alert in response to the growing pressure from NATO countries. The deployment of short- or medium-range ballistic missiles carrying nuclear warheads there would take a shorter time to attack European targets, providing Russia with a more assured pre-emptive strike capability. According to informed sources, Russia has deployed the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system in the Kaliningrad region and the Iskander ballistic missile system, which can contain nuclear warheads. Three. The new dispute between Russia and the United States-led NATO countries surrounding Kaliningrad is indeed a cause for some concern. Russia's new contradictions with NATO, especially in the current climate of ongoing tension in the Russian-Ukraine conflict, add to the old ones, adding to the perception that the situation is difficult to estimate and control. Zhang Hongn believes that Lithuania’s ban on the transit of some Russian goods to Kaliningrad is actually part of the EU’s sanctions against Russia. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the EU has imposed several rounds of sanctions against Russia, with a fifth round of sanctions exempting Kaliningrad from the sixth round of sanctions announced in early June. Therefore, the Lithuanian side stressed that this was not its own individual sanction, but rather its implementation of the EU sanctions, and that the European Commission had been consulted on an ad hoc basis before the announcement. The goods currently affected by the ban are mainly coal, metals, construction materials, and items related to advanced technology, while other passengers and cargo not subject to EU sanctions are not affected. Among the goods embargoed, cement and steel are the ones most affected in Kaliningrad, and there will be some difficulties in the short term after the ban. However, Changandong Alikhanov of the Kaliningrad region has also indicated that goods prohibited from transiting through Lithuania will be transported by sea. Russia has also increased the frequency of shipments by sea from Leningrad region to Kaliningrad region. As the population of Kaliningrad is only 1 million, the volume of goods transported by rail with Russia is not too large per year. Overall, the difficulties are not insurmountable. This was seen by the Russian side more as a provocation and diplomatic contempt of Russia than an economic loss, as a threat to and obstruction of normal economic activity between it and Kaliningrad, and was therefore very strong. Russia's response, on the one hand, is to avoid the recurrence of similar events and, on the other hand, to seek the immunity of Kaliningrad from EU sanctions against Russia. According to Zhang Hong, while some in Russia have military proposals, there is little chance that Russia will actually take military action and that further confrontation with NATO will take place. Russia does not want to have a positive conflict with NATO now, in terms of both will and capability. After the Russian-Ukraine conflict, there is a tacit agreement between Russia and NATO that there will be no positive conflict between the two sides and no nuclear war. From the point of view of the United States, as the leader of Western allies and NATO, it is certain in this context to reaffirm its obligations to its member States in order to maintain the stability of the Western Alliance and the reliability of NATO's mutual security confidence. However, from the point of view of the United States, the European Union and Lithuania, it was hoped that the matter would be a friction, not a hot war, in the context of a controlled sanctions and counter-sanctions, containment and counter-constraint. Moreover, the EU’s response has been relatively moderate, even showing a willingness to communicate and engage in dialogue with Russia. Because it is clear that the EU does not want to continue to fuel tensions and create new troubles and contradictions with Russia in the current climate of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, Kaliningrad is a relatively special enclave. During the process of accession to the European Union by the Baltic three countries, the European Union and Russia had bilateral agreements committing themselves to facilitating the movement of persons and goods between Russia and Kaliningrad.

Note: This is a translated version of the Chinese news media article. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.

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2022-08-08: While Nancy Pelosi, President of the United States Congress, has been visiting Taiwan for 19 hours, China has not sent liberation forces to shoot down, intercept, or accompany each other’s aircraft, but instead, after her departure, has taken a military backlash that transcends the “96 missile…

More than 3,000 media around the world intensively forwarded! The voice of the main station continues to declare China's position

2022-08-07: In response to the visit of the Speaker of the United States Congress, Pelosi, to the Taiwan region of China, on 2 August, many people pointed out that the visit of Pelosi to the Taiwan region of China constituted a serious violation of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and a serious…

What are the ways that Pelosi can see from the reactions of various countries in Taiwan?

2022-08-08: The question of Taiwan is an internal matter for China, but the Chinese-American game around the Taiwan Strait is not just in the Taiwan Strait itself, but also in the field of international diplomacy. In recent days, more than 160 countries and international organizations have supported China's…

Depth:Liu Hongliang: Can India's national defense localization, which has not been completed for 75 years, still work?

2022-08-07: Summary After independence, India has been promoting the localization of the defense industry. After Modi’s administration, it was guided by a policy of “Indian manufacturing” and “Indian self-reliance” to create a list of defence products that are prohibited from being imported, promote defence…