OPEC: Oil demand next year will exceed pre-epidemic levels
2021-09-15: [Original Article Link].
According to Agence France-Presse, on September 13, local time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that due to the introduction of the vaccine and the continued global economic rebound, global oil demand is expected to exceed pre-epidemic levels throughout next year.
OPEC said in its monthly oil market report: "With the increase in vaccination rates in various regions of the world, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is expected to be better controlled, economic activity and liquidity will largely return to pre-epidemic levels."
OPEC expects 2022, global oil demand has on average will rise by 4.2 million million barrels/day. This is bigger than last month the estimated high 900,000 barrels/day such that 2022, global oil demand reached an average of 0.10083 billion barrels per day, the new expected higher than outbreak before 2019, 0.1003 billion barrels/day of the demand level.
In addition, OPEC said in the September oil market monthly report released on the 13th that the risk of the outbreak caused by the Delta variant strain cast a shadow over the outlook for oil demand in the fourth quarter of this year, as a result, the global average daily oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter of this year was lowered. Global oil demand was slightly lowered in the second half of this year, and some recovery in oil demand will be postponed to the first half of 2022.
OPEC said that this year the average daily oil demand is expected to 96.7 million barrels in the fourth quarter of the average daily oil demand is expected to 99.7 million barrels than a month before the predicted lower 110,000 barrels/day.
According to Bloomberg News, OPEC also said in its monthly report: "The global economic recovery, coupled with a sharp rebound in liquidity, greatly boosted oil demand growth in the first half of the year." The report said that "although this trend is expected to weaken by the end of 2021," the overall trend is still positive.
According to the report, OPEC had previously predicted that oil demand will return to the level of 2019 in the second half of next year. In addition, to maintain its next year non-OPEC supply growth is expected to remain unchanged, also to this year's non-OPEC supply growth forecasts 200,000 barrels/day. The report also said that overall, OPEC's forecast implies that the supply of crude oil market will become increasingly tight, and the current expected recovery of oil demand is stronger than before.
This optimistic forecast comes as OPEC and its allies are starting to increase production to meet the growing demand. OPEC and its allies once cut production sharply last year to boost oil prices. Because at the beginning of the epidemic, economic activity was interrupted by the blockade measures, causing oil prices to plummet.
The oil market Monthly quoted as second-hand sources, OPEC August this year a daily increase of 151,000 barrels reached the figure of 26.76 million barrels a day. Among them, large oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have increased production, while Nigeria has reduced production.
Note: This is auto-translated version of an article meant for Chinese audience. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.