Improving the foresight of macro-control

2021-09-15: [Original Article Link].

Improving the forward-looking nature of macro-control is an important requirement of the Party Central Committee for macro-control work. To improve the foresight of macro-control means that to do a good job of macro-control work, we must strive to be ahead of time, explore long-term trends from short-term fluctuations through various economic phenomena, and cultivate a world vision and strategic thinking, make the theoretical and policy innovation of economic construction fully reflect the advanced and scientific nature, and enhance the pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control. Therefore, improving the foresight of macro-control is an inherent requirement for doing a good job in economic work and improving the scientific level of economic governance. It is very important to transform the institutional advantages of the party's leadership in economic work into governance efficiency. Generally speaking, the market is the most efficient form of allocating resources, but when market signals are not true, it will cause cyclical fluctuations in the economy. Moreover, the deeper structural problems, quality and efficiency problems, industrial transformation and upgrading problems reflected by cyclical economic fluctuations cannot be solved by spontaneous market regulation, or the cost of market regulation is too high. One of the purposes of macro-control is to overcome market blindness and market failure, to adjust and control the blindness and short-sightedness of the market mechanism to the greatest extent, and to maintain stable and healthy economic development. To improve the foresight of macro-control, we must adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping's new era of socialist economic thought with Chinese characteristics, and accurately analyze the "difficulties" and "blocking points" in economic operation ", looking at the overall, general trend and essence of economic development and operation from a long time axis, revealing and grasping economic laws from a deeper level, and providing theoretical guidance for macro-control work, in turn, we will continue to optimize the counter-cyclical adjustment policy mix and cross-cyclical policy design, promote a better combination of effective markets and promising governments, and win the initiative of high-quality development. To improve the foresight of macro-control, we must keep a close eye on the "leading indicators" of economic operation, especially those indicators that reflect the high-quality development of the economy, and pay close attention to the signs and tendencies in economic operations, potential problems, timely prediction and early warning; At the same time, strengthen the regulation of information collection, research and analysis, decision-making and implementation of the implementation system, recognize opportunities and challenges in the development and change, and reasonably determine the regulatory policy orientation, we should do a good job in the "combination of regulation and control policies, institutionalize, standardize and systematize good procedures and methods, enhance the predictability of regulation and control, reduce the arbitrariness of regulation, and promote a more mature and stereotyped macro-control system and mechanism. The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is after China has built a well-off society in an all-round way and achieved the first centenary goal, taking advantage of the situation to start a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, the first five years of marching towards the second centenary goal. Doing a good job in economic work and enhancing the foresight of macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is particularly important for a good start and a good start in the new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. To this end, it is necessary to further improve the macro-control system and mechanism. The first is to improve the level of digital governance. The high-level analysis of economic operation data is an important basis for anticipating hidden risks and guiding market expectations. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure, make good use of data production factors, and promote the modernization of the statistical system, use modern information technology to help economic governance and improve the timeliness and accuracy of macro-control policies. The second is to grasp the direction, timing, intensity and rhythm of macro-control. Adhere to the main line of supply-side structural reform, highlight overall planning and comprehensive balance, improve policy objective management and major decision-making mechanisms, and grasp the direction, timing, intensity and rhythm of macro-control, improve the goal setting and exit mechanism, achieve positive interaction between policy objectives and means, and reduce policy time lag and unnecessary chain reactions. The third is to insist on legal regulation. Legal regulation of the dynamic adjustment of goals and means to ensure that regulation and governance comply with the law, abide by the rules, and be effective, and achieve the best effect of macro-control at the lowest cost and cost. The Politburo meeting held on July 30 analyzed and studied the current economic situation and deployed economic work in the second half of the year, requiring "do a good job in cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies, coordinate the macro-policy convergence this year and next, and maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range". This fully reflects the highly forward-looking nature of China's macro-control. Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, we have coordinated the overall domestic and international situations, coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, effectively implemented macroeconomic policies, and sustained and stable economic recovery, stable and improving, scientific and technological self-reliance and active promotion, intensified reform and opening up, people's livelihood was effectively guaranteed, new results were achieved in high-quality development, and the overall social situation remained stable. Looking forward to the future, as long as we adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping's new era of socialist economic thought with Chinese characteristics, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, and deepen the supply-side structural reform, accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, promoting high-quality development, and doing a good job in cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, we will certainly be able to consolidate the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, do a good job in the "second half" economic work this year and complete the main goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.

Note: This is auto-translated version of an article meant for Chinese audience. A mature and nuanced reading is suggested.